Truckload capacity is still the story this fall. Spot prices dipped slightly for the week to Oct. 16, but the sources we follow agree the dip came from cheaper fuel, not from more trucks. Here is what changed this month and what shippers and carriers can do about it.
Spot slipped on fuel, not on capacity
DAT’s weekly numbers, published Oct. 19, show national average spot rates for van, reefer and flatbed edging down for the week of Oct. 10 to 16. DAT says lower diesel drove nearly all of the decline, while the linehaul portion held close to flat. Its van load-to-truck ratio eased, but analyst Dean Croke put it plainly: “Capacity remains the key factor in pricing.” Read the full weekly report at AJOT, citing DAT One and DAT iQ.
FreightWaves made a related point on Oct. 5: truckload spot rates have kept rising even though demand has not. Accepted tender volumes are well below their June peak, and outright tender rejections have eased a little from their mid-September high. Analyst Julie Van de Kamp says new operating-authority filings are not a reliable sign of new capacity, and that adding trucks is getting harder. See the FreightWaves story.
Contract freight is still catching up
Spot is the smaller part of the market. The Cass Freight Index, reported Oct. 13, showed September shipments up from a year ago for a second straight month. Its truckload linehaul index rose from a year ago for the 21st straight month, to its highest reading in four years. Cass says spot is slowing, but the much larger contract market is still adjusting higher. The details are in the FreightWaves report on Cass data.
C.H. Robinson’s October report looks further out. It forecasts that spot truckload costs for dry van, refrigerated and flatbed will be higher in 2026 than in 2025, and higher again in 2027. Carriers it surveyed report elevated tender rejections and limited fleet expansion. Where you load also matters. In its report, Northeast reefer is loosening and the Upper Midwest has seen relief, while the Pacific Northwest stays tight through October. The full text is at C.H. Robinson’s October 2026 truckload market update.
Diesel is moving the other way
The fuel relief behind last week’s spot dip did not last. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the national average diesel price for the week of Oct. 19 is up from the week of Oct. 12, and up sharply from a year earlier. Diesel is the biggest swing in all-in trucking cost right now, so it matters how a quote splits linehaul from fuel. The weekly figures are on the EIA fuel update page.
Holiday freight is already moving inland
The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, published Oct. 8, says August was the busiest import month of the year and the peak season started early. NRF forecasts October imports above last year, and its Jonathan Gold says most holiday merchandise has already arrived. That puts the inland move from ports and warehouses squarely in the present. See NRF’s release.
A slow answer on driver supply
Driver supply is at the root of tight capacity. The American Trucking Associations reported on July 30 that the Freedom Haulers initiative extends the window for veterans to get an expedited CDL from 12 to 24 months after service, offers CDL training to veterans who never drove heavy trucks, and expands the Even Exchange program to 32 states. About 200,000 Americans leave the armed forces each year. Shippers should read this as a slow, longer-term path to more trucks, not a quick fix. See the ATA announcement.
What this means for you
- If you ship: Do not plan around spot relief. Ask every quote to show linehaul and fuel separately, and line up dependable capacity early for seasonal freight rather than waiting for the market to soften.
- If you renew contract freight: Plan for costs above last year, and for another year of increases in 2027 if C.H. Robinson’s forecast holds.
- If you run trucks: Know your strong lanes. Cass and DAT both point to capacity, not demand, as what sets the price, and a plain fuel surcharge explanation helps your shippers trust the number.
- If you are hiring drivers: The veteran CDL changes may open a recruiting pool worth a look.
Want a quote broken out by linehaul and fuel? Message Freight Wizards and we will walk you through your options.